Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Crime Statistic Analysis of the Bronx Since Introduction of New York Initiative


http://www.nyc.gov/html/nypd/downloads/pdf/crime_statistics/cspbbx.pdf


Brooklyn's Own Superheroes July 13th, 2010 - their approximate origin date.

If One is reading this correctly, it would appear that Crime in the Bronx, New York, though over all trending downwards since well before (years) the skateboarders with delusions of being "crimefighters" showed up, has actually INCREASED since they've been active. See if you come to the same conclusions. Crime Increased since the New York Initiative has been active. Now they've admitted to protecting the business interests of Pimps - those people who illegally prey on and exploit women for their own financial gain - and this might account for some of the increase in crime, but how much criminal activity can be attributed to strictly the crime enabling New York Initiative? Trespassing (Ask Zimmer to flex his buttocks on camera and watch him scamper over any fence you want him to), or Archery Practice on a rooftop in a densely populated population center, can't attribute to ALL the increase in crime. Though as they will tell anyone who will listen - they're out to inspire, and it may in fact be true that just as they spy on citizens, the example they're setting - their "inspiration" is increased lawlessness and crime.

Here's larger samples. Maybe One is reading these statistics incorrectly;

Note the 2 Year %Chg - increase in crime Since superhero street gang introduced.



Note over all trend of crime downward before superhero streetgang introduced. 


It's possible One is misinterpreting the facts outlined in these statistics. Please comment if you see any flaw in my analysis or research. Because One is a Scientist, and One looks for facts, and forms theories based on provable and reproducible test results. Details, evidence, proof. The Truth. 

Not superhero storytime. 

As a Scientist, based on my analysis, one postulates in a theory, that superheroes contribute to crime by their lawlessness. If you want to know if superheroes are worth having, the answer is empirically "No". 

As an American Citizen One will follow up that Analysis with my emphatic opinion;  "HELL No!". 

-Lord Malignance


Side Note: For all of us Citizens outside of New York, there may be an issue with Local Customs and Norms - the "Language" may be different or have different meanings. Here is what an Ad in New York uses to define "Hero";

What is a Hero?
Military Personnel, Firefighter-EMT/Paramedic-Rescue Personnel, Police Officers & Law Enforcement Personnel, Teachers, Doctors/Nurses


Source; http://www.nyheroesprogram.com/


Nothing , not one single bone thrown to caped up moonbats, prancing around at night in leotards. That would be Killer Moth in his Manhood concealing Leotard, for any fact-seekers.

12 comments:

  1. NYPD has a history of dressing up numbers. You can only trust so much that you get from them. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704698004576104203869313630.html

    If that argument seems too thin, there is also the claims that the police didn't start addressing 911 calls in the NYI's area until after the NYI had been patrolling for a while. What you tote as an increase in actual crimes may very well be an increase in crimes REPORTED by the police.

    I could ask about things like the statistical significance of a .5% increase in crime rates with respect to the dramatic decrease in crime rates over the past 20 years, but I'll admit I'm not sure myself. The data you posted is confusing even for someone with some training in statistical analysis. Hell, you don't even sound confident in your own analysis other than being able to say that there was a positive increase. Please elaborate, because I'll admit I'm too dumb to figure out what exactly is being said by those stats.

    -Bridges

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  2. Bridges,

    Thank you, and you're right - One is not able to say either conclusively that the numbers by themselves support my theory, or that the NYI are in fact contributing to an increase in Crime in the Bronx solely by the example of lawlessness they are setting. This is why One is offering these findings for peer review. This single dataset from the single most reliable source of information w/particular geographic relevance are used to evaluate those claiming to be "crimefighters", and these results appear to indicate a steady decline of crime in the years prior to the New York Initiative beginning their activities, and an increase from last year to this year once they had started. Economic factors as well as many others may play as much, more, or less a factor in the analysis.

    As to the veracity of the numbers, One thinks that the largest police force in our country, with the greatest budget for law enforcement, with the most sophisticated technology of the most powerful nation on Earth, with the smartest minds and best reason (post 9/11) to be absolutely on top of any criminal activity within the city area, has a better chance of producing statistical analysis of such simple things as police reports.

    One has heard counter claims though - and to give them their fair say;

    Members of the NYI have postulated the idea that the New York Police are participating in a conspiracy to diminish their crime fighting accomplishments (skateboarding around pretending to be batman). They site their superior analytic results based on their resources of Comic Books, a home computer, a Facebook page, and other "superheroes" pretending to also be batman, who glad hand them in their mutual fantasy.

    Occam's Razor: Which is the simplest answer? That of a conspiracy, incompetence, or malfeasance? Or that street gangs in capes of lawbreakers are luring and recruiting idle youths into similar criminal activities through social media sites like Facebook? Which seems more likely to be contributing to this phenomenon?

    -Lord Malignance

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  3. I'll give you that conspiracy, in the general sense, is a convoluted explanation. Misunderstanding and self-serving actions are less so. In addition to my previous anecdote, this point is demonstrated remarkably by the multiple lawsuits against Seattle's police department for police brutality and withholding dash cam videos and other material that should be in the public domain. Furthermore, the last couple of years (FEMA-fiasco, the collapse of Social Security, the ever-more terrifying national debt, etc.) demonstrate that incompetence is no strange phenomenon in government organizations, police departments included.

    Conversely, if we assume that the NYPD is indeed fully competent and accountable and blame the NYI for the .5% increase in crime rates, we are giving the NYI a hell of a lot of credit. My back of the envelope calculations tally it up to 50 or so crimes that are at least partly related to the NYI. 50 police-documented crimes. If we're assuming that the NYPD is able to effectively do their job (as evidenced by the 20 year overall trend in reduced crime), we either need to tip our hats to the NYI for being extremely good at avoiding police action against them, or we have to look for an alternate explanation/change our original assumptions.

    -Bridges

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  4. Bridges,

    Thank you. One appreciates the time you have taken to assist in this and it is noted.

    The larger picture is not merely the details, but One is happy to provide these, as the car wreck that is "American Idol Justice" unfolds. There also is the larger question of "What society do we want to live in, and when are we as a people going to stand up and take back what is ours?". We are presented with two futures;

    One where lawless gangs intimidate citizens and each individually gets to choose what "justice" means to them at that moment, or,

    A Civilization of laws, due process, and fair treatment as equals won through our shared struggle and history.

    The New York Initiative Sell a story, and One IS presenting a "slippery slope" argument - but it goes to my point: WHEN do we stand up and say "No More"? Will it be after someone is injured or killed? The Police face this responsibility every day - and we train and support them for this eventuality. Kids on Skateboards playing batman - we provide nothing, and rightly so. Do we wait to be proven correct, and the needless cost of even one person's life, when we see the trend in crimes upswing? Should we not investigate and question? Which is the objective.

    Perhaps crime rate increase can be seen as more economically based. One year (almost 2) is hardly conclusive evidence of a trend, yet it remains worrying that specifically local to their particular sphere of influence, their results are quite contrary to their stated objectives, and more in line with what they represent. Lawlessness.

    Bottom Line - where rests our faith in effective Law enforcement? Again - the Largest, best funded, staffed w/the smartest people, trained w/a history of generations to this particular responsibility, employing the most sophisticated technologies, working in the shadow of the tragedy of 9/11, Police, - or comicbook fanboys with maybe 1+ years of experience in pretending to be batman? If it's selling a nice story of adventure and martyrdom - to the least curious demographic, then the New York Reavers. But - but, if it's Doing the Job of protecting our streets, then it always has to be the authorities. Fact is, the New York Initiative is one ticking timebomb, waiting for them to be called upon to step up to be what they claim they are - when they really aren't anything but criminally prosecutable adults laboring under the group self delusion of playing batman.

    -Lord Malignance

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  5. Way to go for the throat. I like it.

    I apologize in advance, I'll have to pare down what I initially wanted to say for the sake of brevity and more time being more productive.

    My opinion is that the inherent collapses of current society (on both ends of the spectrum in terms of government and individual duties) that many get a hard-on preparing for is highly unlikely. Granted, so is a getting hit by lighting - so I don't fault people for wanting to have a plan in case of the extremely rare catastrophe. Especially since this preparation and activism can actually complement the short-comings of current society. No one can deny that the way things are now is problematic, especially for those that slip through the cracks in to anti-social behavior. Examples: Surprising rates of recitivism: minor offending criminals being institutionalized and going on to commit greater felonies. The near impossibility for ex-cons to find work after getting out. The traps of gangs and human and substance trafficking, which solve temporary problems of income/security during hard times only to create a gamut of other issues.

    To me these are all people who, despite their faults, deserve compassion and more understanding. I don't see a long term benefit in putting them through a criminal justice meat grinder that often feeds into itself.

    Basically, what you call deciding what justice means on an individual basis, I call recognition of a faulty justice system and finding an alternative. The NYI does this, or at least wants to. Hopefully with critiscm/support from those such as yourself, they and others will continue to figure it out.

    -Bridges

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  6. Bridges,

    Thank you. Civilization is built on laws, our society thrives because of real, understood, and agreed upon principles. Primary among these are that we are all equal, and treated the same under the law. When you have vigilantes like the New York Initiative deciding who they will harass and punish for what they think they know of their law, you set up a condition of injustice and criminality. That's what the New York Initiative - with their Taped up Axe handles, Stun weaponry, and associated means to inflict pain, suffering, and intimidation, are promising the honest hard working, law abiding citizens of Brooklyn. What justice does the New York Initiative offer? A capricious modus operandi of terror to any they might target they believe "aren't quite equal" to fair treatment under the law. Is ANYone they target for their playtime justice guilty - of anything? No, no they are not. Not until proven so, in a court of law, through due process and fair legal representation. Do people who may actually be innocent and provably so, appreciate the kind of potential lethal assault the New York Initiative intentionally wield w/out a legal mandate from the people of the community? They will not. They must, and they do not.

    One is in Colorado, so that is only a reasonable exercise of rational deduction.

    You can help people without dressing up and looking to street gang fight with other delinquent youths. They could constructively be volunteering at a homeless shelter, or donating time at a soup kitchen - like normal people, who are sincere in their desire to help do, every day, in every city and state across our country. But no - these reprobates in their fetish-wear have a different agenda, and it is to harm and pervert justice and society.

    Thank you for looking at this issue with me. You have been excellent.

    -Lord Malignance

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  7. Next time I'm in Colorado I'm going to have to look you up for drinks or something. Possibly a battle to the death, it's up to you. I'm flexible.

    Also, apologies for the late reply, my laptop has taken to pretending it's a toaster and attempting to melt the innards every half hour or so.

    I think one of us may be slightly confused about how the NYI operates. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong. I was under the impression that while they do have a small stockpile of scary ass shit (as they are legally allowed to have in their homes), they do not patrol with it due to the very limiting laws in NYC regarding self-defense weapons. I'm not even sure if they can use OC spray legally.

    Weapons aside, I'm also curious to hear whether there are any reports of injuries attributed to the NYI's presence. The picture you paint seems very much to me like something that would at least have people hospitalized (if not some other form of police intervention, as I noted earlier). Not sure where you'd look for something like that, but short of patrolling with the NYI (which I certainly plan to do when the opportunity arises), there's not much evidence to justify depicting them as essentially terrorists. Honestly, I've heard more about them non-violently de-escalating situations, both in NYI-facebook statuses and phone calls with Zero.

    Come to think of it, NYI-related injury reports from hospitals are probably going to be just as illusive as NYI-assisted arrests. If the NYI is as compassionate as they claim to be, they would avoid getting people arrested as much as possible unless it were absolutely necessary. To address your initial point, you are again explaining the ideal for American citizens. I will again say that people do slip through the cracks and do not always receive equal protection they should be guaranteed. The injustice and criminality is already in place for many of these people. However, trying to address their issues through a system that they are not protected by and therefore have little desire to be a part of is often counter-productive.

    An example here in Seattle is the ticketing of illegally parked vehicles. You can only get so many before your vehicle will be towed. The problem is that many of the vehicles that get towed were the homes of people who can barely afford food and clothing, never mind hundreds of dollars in fines. The realization that many of these people were being deprived of the one thing that kept them off the street, in addition to the cost of collecting what fees they could from these people, led to a shift in the city attorney's office to simply stop prosecuting these cases. Before, when the rules of a society were used to manage a group of people that are not actually a part of that society, it was clusterfuck. Recognition of that saved both groups a lot of time, money, and frustration. Who knows, maybe some of those whose RV wasn't towed will eventually return to society at large.

    Sorry about the rant. I'll get back to meat of this.

    My impression is that the NYI is only prepared to dish out punishment if need be - and the need must be substantial. Besides for the laws that they must follow - as they aren't in prison yet, there is also the definite humanitarian beliefs that they adhere to. I'll admit that the X-alt concept is extreme even to me, but I can still see the good in it. However, I think many learn about what it means to be an X-alt, that can be intimidating and even frightening. Some people see people like the members of the NYI and realize that they are not as prepared or concerned as they want to be. Others simply do not understand, or are concerned about just how prepared they are. I see you as generally being the very last category, and hopefully you see that as a compliment. My only concern is that you are relying to heavily on flimsy evidence and slipping into one of the other categories.

    Granted, I'm probably in the same boat, just on the other side of the fence.

    -Bridges

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  8. Bridges,
    (sorry - long weekend) Part 1 (too long for One post)

    From The New York Times - One trusts you will find their reporters trustworthy?
    http://www.nypress.com/article-21418-brooklyns-own-superheroes.html

    with text;
    "Some conduct charity fundraisers or visit children’s hospitals. others do civic duties like picking up litter or handing out food, water and supplies to the homeless. many do “safety patrols,” much like a concerned citizens’ walking group might. A few of the superheroes, like the NYI, actively fight crime."

    and;

    "A lot of the “crime fighting gear” is illegal in new York, so it remains unused, stored in the apartment. Z flaunts the collapsible batons, stun knuckles (that make a loud zapping sound), throwing knives and spiky hand guards that look like something Genghis Khan would brawl in.
    He also hands me weapons out of an umbrella stand of pain: a couple of giant ax handles bound with duct tape, a metal pipe and an ordinary walking cane, which he wields as a fighting stick. Another rack holds more practical items such as protective arm gauntlets, gloves, flashlights, walkie-talkies and binoculars. I notice a decorative battle-ax and a pair of katanas. A workbench and shelves hold a mess of tools, building materials and armor."

    One contends they certainly do have an arsenal of illegal weapons, and claim the intent not to use them, but that yes, when a reporter asked if they would state for the record that they would use illegal weapons on innocent citizens, they would of course say "no". That's what a liar would say.

    They are lying when they say they are fighting crime, or the police are somehow wrong when they say on the record, that IF the New York Reavers actually did what they say they do, they would be shot.
    " but police haven't been as supportive of their antics: “Block watch? Naw, fuhgetabout that. You’ll get shot. The guys in this neighborhood, they’ll shoot you and no one will tell us who did it. There’s a strong ‘no snitching’ rule out here,” one officer told NY Press."
    (from source; http://gothamist.com/2011/05/12/real-life_superheroes_now_patrollin.php)

    Or from this source;
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/13359936

    " "It's more of a weapon than an instrument," he explains and shows how the sharp metal corners can be jabbed into someone's face.

    Samaritan Prime rides a bike and Battlestar walks the projects on foot
    Pointing at Nitro, he says: "My friend here was at the class where I taught unconventional weapons. He can tell you from experience what it's like to be on the wrong side of a harmonica."

    Nitro shakes his head: "I do not want to deal with that harmonica ever again."

    It's one of a number of items carried by the team that are legal, but can still do damage in a fight.

    Some wear studded gloves. One has a long metal torch that can be used as a club.

    Deaths Head Moth admits he sometimes uses violence." "

    And yet, never any evidence of them ever doing anything. And how does Jacqueline face this question?; With this;

    " The authorities say crime fighting should be left to the police, although the New York Police Department refused to comment on the group's activities.

    Zero is scornful. "Check the stats," he says. "They don't show up." " (From a source above).

    One says, "yes, check the stats". One has done just that, and Crime IS in fact going up, with absolutely no evidence of any crime fighting by the boys playing batman. Or you can believe that, as the Princess Jacqueline would suggest, "it's a conspiracy " because a couple of punks on skateboards are worth the New York Police department's time to craft such a conspiracy.

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  9. Part 2;

    As to terrorism One includes this quote; "To complete the look, he wears a black Predator-type mask sure to creep out anyone who sees it on the street. " from source http://www.nypress.com/article-21418-brooklyns-own-superheroes.html . Take a look at the mask and tell me if the predator style mask is meant for any purpose other than to spread terror? They ARE a street gang roaming to inflict terror on any they meet, and pain on anyone they decide should be punished. Again - no law here, just kids playing batman deciding who gets hurt by them.

    You're rationalizing a lack of injury reports. The very common weapon used by crime in New York is guns, and they must always be reported. "Avoid getting people arrested as much as possible"? Rationalizing for no crime reports. Occam's razor. Conspiracy or liars. One holds there are no police reports, because they are lying.

    People do slip through the cracks - we do not abolish civilization to compound the issue - and that's the real world. And we both know this. It always has been this way. Saying that because there is crime, we should become criminals to fight it, is a false argument.

    Seattle and parking: An unjust situation, and the laws came to an equitable solution. No superhero involvement. My point exactly.

    Response to last paragraph: They aren't in prison being passed between prisoners, because they are lying. They instigate others to act in the ways their story telling directs people to. Or they are in fact a dangerous gang roaming around looking to beat innocent citizens to death for imagined transgressions against their understanding of law. Maybe not to death, maybe. Who can say until evidence shows up? One doesn't want to see that come to pass. Do you?

    Flimsy evidence? It is what they have presented. It is the only evidence that can be examined and questioned. One is extremely exacting in my methodology. They present stories and these stories are examined. They make unsubstantiated claims and these are examined as well. They are questioned, and my personal experience is that they are liars, and cowards (Jack Cero) who are more concerned with hiding from the truth than of trying to be the better people they posture and brag about being.

    For what evidence there is, One has presented it, and spoken my questions. Archery Practice on their rooftop? Illegal. Supporting (protecting the Pimps income stream) Prostitution? Illegal. The more they show us, the more illegal activities we will find. It's only a matter of time.

    -Lord Malignance

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  10. just remembered this;

    Dark Guardian is part of the New York Reavers, right?

    Here's a story;
    http://heroesinthenight.blogspot.com/2010/11/hero-house.html

    And here's his work on trying hide the truth from getting out;
    (Google search these terms; Hero House, IFC, Dark Guardian).

    Dark Guardian - first with the Magaphone to shout at supposed drug dealers (innocent until proven guilty in a court of law) but first to kill any story that might present "superheroes" in a fair light.

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  11. Wait! Or the time Jacqueline (as Z) thought it might be a good idea to join ROACH (The Ruthless Organization AGAINST Citizen Heroes);

    http://joinroach.blogspot.com/2010/03/abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxy-and.html#comments

    w/text; "And yeah, I know that there's very few interested in that whole thing. But I also know a few things you guys don't about things coming over the horizon (no offense), and it may behoove you guys to be on the lookout for a renewed (and exponentially larger) interest in the movement as a whole." (Where Jack attempts to sell out his own kind to Evil, for membership in a group out to put an end to superheroes).

    Why would he want to oppose everything heroes stand for? Well, let's look at what heroes were doing then; It was RLSH run by Zetaman and his handouts to the homeless. Helping people.

    That's not what X-Alts are about is it? They're much more militant, much more into frightening people and inflicting as much pain as they can, and still get away with it to inflict more later. Nowadays, it's Firearms*, Bows and Arrows, Beating sticks, and apparently Harmonicas to jam into peoples faces - the eyes One imagines. Permanently blinding if not killing the people they ambush in their little "sting operations". Or as they would call them, "suspects" if in fact they had any mandate from the people to perform any law enforcement duties at all.

    Yes, the deeper you look, the filthier the superheroes become. Why IS that do you suppose?

    -Lord Malignance
    And remember - One doesn't have any special secret access, and never posts anything that isn't public information. What could be found with such access, if the known is so bad?


    * One doesn't know if the New York Initiative are carrying Firearms. There is no evidence that they are. There are however two other heroes who do admit to carrying Firearms, and One didn't know of them until after the campaign started by the New York Initiative to go out and play crimefighters. It may be merely a timely coincidence of these two events: The New York Initiative's calls to go out and confront criminals who carry guns, and playtime pretend superheroes starting to carry guns.

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